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Global Epidemic of Ebola Virus Disease and the Importation Risk into China: An Assessment Based on the Risk Matrix Method
被引:6
|作者:
Sheng, Wei Jing
[1
]
Jing, Wen Zhan
[1
]
Liu, Jue
[1
]
Liu, Min
[1
]
机构:
[1] Peking Univ, Sch Publ Hlth, Beijing 100191, Peoples R China
基金:
中国国家自然科学基金;
关键词:
Ebola virus disease;
Infectious disease;
Importation risk;
Risk matrix method;
PREPAREDNESS;
D O I:
10.3967/bes2023.008
中图分类号:
X [环境科学、安全科学];
学科分类号:
08 ;
0830 ;
摘要:
Objective To analyze the global epidemic status of the Ebola virus disease (EVD) and assess the importation risk into China. Methods Data from World Health Organization reports were used. We described the global epidemic status of EVD from 1976-2021, and assessed and ranked the importation risk of EVD from the disease-outbreaking countries into China using the risk matrix and Borda count methods, respectively. Results From 1976-2021, EVD mainly occurred in western and central Africa, with the highest cumulative number of cases (14,124 cases) in Sierra Leone, and the highest cumulative fatality rate (85%) in the Congo. Outbreaks of EVD have occurred in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Guinea since 2018. The importation risk into China varies across countries with outbreaks of disease. The Democratic Republic of the Congo had an extremely high risk (23 Borda points), followed by Guinea and Liberia. Countries with a moderate importation risk were Nigeria, Uganda, Congo, Sierra Leone, Mali, and Gabon, while countries with a low importation risk included Sudan, Senegal, and Cbote d'Ivoire. Conclusion China is under the risk of EVD importation with the globalization and severe epidemic status of EVD. Key attention need to be paid to the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Guinea, and Liberia. Therefore, it is necessary to prevent and prepare in advance for importation risk in China.
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页码:86 / 93
页数:8
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