Loss of green landscapes due to urban expansion in China

Revealing multi-scale cascading change in land use is crucial for developing urbanization strategies and ecological restoration in China. This study used an integrated assessment of "landscape processes-ecological services" to simulate landscape changes over historical (1995-2020) and climate (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP5-8.5) scenarios (2020-2100) in China. Moreover, direct and indirect impacts of green landscape loss due to urban expansion were assessed via food production changes. The historical period exhibited a nearly threefold urban expansion, mainly occupying croplands and forest-grasslands. The direct impact of urban expansion on forest-grasslands was more significant than the indirect impact. Between the future scenarios, the growth rate of national grain production significantly differed (SSP5-8.5 > SSP2-4.5 > SSP1-2.6). SSP5-8.5 showed a high increase in grain yield and the largest indirect occupation of forest-grasslands by urban expansion. These findings reveal land use trade-offs in China, offering scientific support for regional land use planning and ecosystem management policies.