Informational predictability, and an application to the intensity of high-resolution temporal rainfall

被引：0

作者：

Mendez, Felix Fernandez ^{[1
,2
]}

Larranaga, Jose Carlos Gomez ^{[3
]}

Carsteanu, Alin Andrei ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] ESFM Inst Politecn Nacl, Mexico City, Mexico

[2] Univ Anahuac, Huixquilucan, Mexico

[3] Ctr Invest Matemat, Guanajuato, Mexico

来源：

STOCHASTIC ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND RISK ASSESSMENT | 2023年 / 37卷 / 07期

关键词：

COMPLEXITY;

D O I：

10.1007/s00477-023-02410-7

中图分类号：

X [环境科学、安全科学];

学科分类号：

08 ; 0830 ;

摘要：

In an effort to solidly define predictability, and the estimation thereof, in different processes, and considering the interpretation of mutual information as an expected value of the logarithm of joint probability, we show that, in the light of causality, the expected value of the logarithm of conditional probability fulfills the desirable properties of a predictability descriptor. An application to high-resolution rainfall intensity time series is presented.

引用

页码：2651 / 2656

页数：6