Accounting impacts of renewable energy expansions on ecosystem services to balance the trade-offs

Renewable energy systems and ecosystem services, both vital for human society, are often at odds. The land cover change brought about by renewable energy expansions tends to degrade ecosystem services. An effective approach for appraising the effects of renewable energy expansions on ecosystem services is therefore urgently needed. Faced with recent acute power shortages, Pakistan has embarked on renewable energy expansions to meet its future energy demands. These expansions, in turn, will degrade ecosystems in the country, leading to a further decline in the value of its already dwindling ecosystem services. To quantify this decline, I combine spatially explicit modeling and ecosystem services valuation techniques to monetize the impacts of the potential expansions of three energy systems: solar, wind, and hydro. The results show that 18.35 % of Pakistan's total area is suitable for potential renewable energy expansion, with 14.83 % of that total appropriate for solar, 3.48 % for wind, and 0.04 % for hydropower. The average value of ecosystem services from the areas of impact by potential expansions of solar, wind, and hydropower energy systems are respectively $2026, $2160, and $2824 per hectare per year (in 2020 U.S. dollars). Furthermore, the permanent loss of ecosystem services from the expansions decreases in the order of hydropower > solar > wind. The renewable energy expansions based on the potential energy mix for the year 2030 will cause a total impact of up to $9617 million per year thereafter, with a complete loss of $1259.4 million per year in ecosystem services values. These results can help achieve a finely balanced trade-off between renewable energy expansions and ecosystem services in the country. This novel approach for assessing the environmental footprints of energy expansions can be a trailblazer for countries and regions aiming at transitioning to renewable energy systems.