Development of flood hazard index under climate change scenarios in Java']Java Island

被引:6
作者
Farid, Mohammad [1 ]
Sihombing, Yeremia Immanuel [2 ]
Kuntoro, Arno Adi [3 ]
Adityawan, Mohammad Bagus [3 ]
Syuhada, Muhammad Marshal [6 ]
Januriyadi, Nurul Fajar [4 ]
Moe, Idham Riyando [5 ]
Nurhakim, Ardhi [6 ]
机构
[1] Inst Teknol Bandung, Inst Sci & Technol Dev, Ctr Coastal & Marine Dev, Jalan Ganesha 10, Kota Bandung 40132, Indonesia
[2] Inst Teknol Bandung, Fac Civil & Environm Engn, Master Program Civil Engn, Jalan Ganesha 10, Kota Bandung 40132, Indonesia
[3] Inst Teknol Bandung, Inst Sci & Technol Dev, Ctr Water Resources Dev, Jalan Ganesha 10, Kota Bandung 40132, Indonesia
[4] Pertamina Univ, Dept Civil Engn, Jalan Teuku Nyak Arief,RT7-RW8, Kota Jakarta Selatan 12220, Indonesia
[5] Minist Publ Works & Housing, Directorate Gen Water Resources, Jalan Pattimura 20, Jakarta 12110, Indonesia
[6] Inst Teknol Bandung, Fac Civil & Environm Engn, Master Program Water Resources Management, Jalan Ganesha 10, Kota Bandung 40132, Indonesia
关键词
Flood inundation; Climate change; RRI model; !text type='Java']Java[!/text] Island; RIVER; IMPACT; MAP;
D O I
10.1016/j.pdisas.2023.100302
中图分类号
X [环境科学、安全科学];
学科分类号
08 ; 0830 ;
摘要
Climate change-induced alterations in temperature and precipitation patterns pose a significant threat to flood risk worldwide. This research focuses on Java Island and presents a method to develop a flood hazard index map considering various future climate change scenarios. To simulate flood characteristics for various scenarios, an RRI (Rainfall-Runoff-Inundation) model was calibrated and validated using six different flood events in three basin areas. Furthermore, the baseline, historical 100-year return period, was compared against climate change scenarios representing near-future (2015-2060) and far-future (2061-2100) cycles, integrating six bias-corrected climate models under the SSP2.45 and SSP5.85 scenarios. This study reveals that the maximum predicted flood extents under both SSP2.45 and SSP5.85 scenarios surpass the baseline across all cycles, with propagation areas expanding with each scenario and cycle. Notably, the worst-case hazard score for all cycles and scenarios occurred in DKI Jakarta and Central Java due to high rainfall concentration and population density. In the case of DKI Jakarta, the hazard score was between 0.61 and 0.76, while, for Central Java, the hazard score was between 0.61 and 0.73. These findings are important for guiding non-governmental and governmental institutions in making robust flood mitigation policies to safeguard vulnerable communities in Java Island.
引用
收藏
页数:13
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