Risk-taking and tie-breaking

被引:0
作者
Doody, Ryan [1 ]
机构
[1] Brown Univ, Providence, RI 02912 USA
关键词
Decision theory; Risk; Rationality; Tie-breaking; EXPECTED UTILITY; RATIONAL CHOICE; DECISION-THEORY; INDEPENDENCE; PREFERENCE;
D O I
10.1007/s11098-023-01947-1
中图分类号
B [哲学、宗教];
学科分类号
01 ; 0101 ;
摘要
When you are indifferent between two options, it's rationally permissible to take either. One way to decide between two such options is to flip a fair coin, taking one option if it lands heads and the other if it lands tails. Is it rationally permissible to employ such a tie-breaking procedure? Intuitively, yes. However, if you are genuinely risk-averse-in particular, if you adhere to risk-weighted expected utility theory (Buchak in Risk and rationality, Oxford University Press, 2013) and have a strictly convex risk-function-the answer will often be no: the REU of deciding by coin-flip will be lower than the REU of choosing one of the options outright (so long as at least one of the options is a nondegenerate gamble). This turns out to be a significant worry for risk-weighted expected utility theory. I argue that it adds real bite to established worries about diachronic consistency afflicting views, like risk-weighted expected utility theory, that violate Independence. And that, while these worries might be surmountable, surmounting them comes at a price.
引用
收藏
页码:2079 / 2104
页数:26
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