Can marketed on-grid price drive the realization of energy transition in China's power industry under the background of carbon neutrality?

Carbon neutrality goal puts forward new requirements for the energy structure of the power industry in China. The impact of electricity marketization reform on energy transition is one key issue that we need to consider. This paper constructs a system framework for the internal connection of the four primary energy sources and two system dynamics (SD) models to analyze the impact of the marketed on-grid price on the energy transition in the power industry. The results show that: (1) Compared with the benchmark on-grid price, the marketed on-grid price can promote the realization of the energy transition goal in the power industry to a certain extent. In 2060, the marketed on-grid price will be stable at about 0.1 yuan/kWh. (2) The energy transition goal can be achieved if the degree of market openness exceeds 60%. However, if coal-based power fully enters the mar-ketization stage, the proportion of renewable energy can even reach more than 90% in 2060. (3) It is difficult to achieve the carbon neutrality goal only by increasing the proportion of renewable energy. Finally, we put for-ward corresponding policy recommendations.