Rocky rule: the idiosyncrasy of spatial and temporal size variation in mammals

Mammals are predicted to vary in body size following Bergmann's rule, with individuals found at higher latitudes in colder temperatures being larger in size compared to conspecifics occurring at lower latitudes in warmer temperatures. Body size is similarly expected to vary temporally, with a decrease in size through time due to recent climate warming. While Bergmann's rule is well-supported in mammals, there is increasing evidence of exceptions to the rule. Here, we present patterns of size variation in 17 North American mammal species using five morphological traits (condylobasal skull length, skull width, maxillary toothrow length, body weight, and head-and-body length) to determine if size varies predictably for each species in space and time. We found little support for a widespread Bergmannian pattern for these species at a broad spatial scale (across North America) and a contemporary temporal scale (the past 120 years). The effects of latitude or year on each trait were highly variable with three types of responses: an increase, a decrease, or no change in size across space or through time. Spatial size trends were detected more often than temporal size trends, as the temperature range was significantly larger in space than through time. Body weight (the most variable trait) and head-and-body length were more likely to conform to Bergmann's rule than craniodental measurements. We did not detect any changes in size variability with latitude, and our study species either increased or decreased in size variability over time. Our findings demonstrate that size variation in mammals is highly context-dependent. As such, caution is needed when using rules of body size variation to predict the future response of species to climate warning while valid in theory, it is likely too simplistic of an approach.