Methodological insights into ChatGPT's screening performance in systematic reviews

Background The screening process for systematic reviews and meta-analyses in medical research is a labor-intensive and time-consuming task. While machine learning and deep learning have been applied to facilitate this process, these methods often require training data and user annotation. This study aims to assess the efficacy of ChatGPT, a large language model based on the Generative Pretrained Transformers (GPT) architecture, in automating the screening process for systematic reviews in radiology without the need for training data.Methods A prospective simulation study was conducted between May 2nd and 24th, 2023, comparing ChatGPT's performance in screening abstracts against that of general physicians (GPs). A total of 1198 abstracts across three subfields of radiology were evaluated. Metrics such as sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values (PPV and NPV), workload saving, and others were employed. Statistical analyses included the Kappa coefficient for inter-rater agreement, ROC curve plotting, AUC calculation, and bootstrapping for p-values and confidence intervals.Results ChatGPT completed the screening process within an hour, while GPs took an average of 7-10 days. The AI model achieved a sensitivity of 95% and an NPV of 99%, slightly outperforming the GPs' sensitive consensus (i.e., including records if at least one person includes them). It also exhibited remarkably low false negative counts and high workload savings, ranging from 40 to 83%. However, ChatGPT had lower specificity and PPV compared to human raters. The average Kappa agreement between ChatGPT and other raters was 0.27.Conclusions ChatGPT shows promise in automating the article screening phase of systematic reviews, achieving high sensitivity and workload savings. While not entirely replacing human expertise, it could serve as an efficient first-line screening tool, particularly in reducing the burden on human resources. Further studies are needed to fine-tune its capabilities and validate its utility across different medical subfields.