Testing Food Waste Reduction Targets: Integrating Transition Scenarios with Macro-Valuation in an Urban Living Lab

Bristol, one of the United Kingdom's (UK) nine Core Cities, is seeking to achieve Zero Waste City status by 2049. This study combines macro-economic valuation with transition pathway mapping and adapted participatory scenario planning to stress test the city's ambitious food waste targets. The primary aim is to enable better understanding of who might be affected by achieving these targets, both locally and nationally, the potential scale of impacts, and therefore the potential barriers and policy opportunities. The valuation focuses on household and commercial food waste, combining available site and city data with national level proxies. Impact areas include changes in sectoral income, employee income, capital owner income, tax revenue, and carbon emissions. Four scenarios, based on two extreme cases, are modelled to consider food waste reduction and potential shifts in consumption patterns. Results indicate that current market and governance failures incentivise waste, and suggest potential routes to transition, including trade-offs and resource reallocation, alongside the need to acknowledge and respond to these profound structural barriers. With further development and testing, the approach may contribute to a better understanding of how to achieve city socioenvironmental targets.