A XIVth century approach to the points problem

被引:0
|
作者
Blavatskyy, Pavlo [1 ]
机构
[1] Montpellier Business Sch, Montpellier, France
来源
EUROPEAN JOURNAL OF THE HISTORY OF ECONOMIC THOUGHT | 2024年 / 31卷 / 03期
关键词
Decision theory; points problem; XIVth century commercial arithmetics; expected value; risk;
D O I
10.1080/09672567.2023.2292801
中图分类号
F [经济];
学科分类号
02 ;
摘要
The application of expected value as the first decision-theoretical criterion for evaluating risky lotteries is traditionally attributed to the 1654 correspondence between Pierre de Fermat and Blaise Pascal. However, an anonymous author of the XVth century Italian manuscript stored in the Vatican Apostolic Library calculated expected value by backward induction in a similar way to Pascal's approach. This note argues that an even earlier anonymous XIVth century Italian manuscript calculates expected value by a different method resembling the direct rule (regula recta) described in 1202 by Leonardo of Pisa (Fibonacci) in his Liber Abaci as borrowed from the Arabs.
引用
收藏
页码:428 / 436
页数:9
相关论文
共 50 条