Critical mineral demand estimates for low-carbon technologies: What do they tell us and how can they evolve?

The transition to low-carbon energy systems will increase demand for a range of critical minerals and metals. As a result, several quantitative demand models have been developed to help understand the projected scale of growth and if, and to what extent, material shortages may become an obstacle to the deployment of clean energy technologies. This research presents one of the first comparative reviews of mineral demand estimates for clean energy technologies and provides a meta-analysis of assumptions, model parameters, and key results. Drawing from academic and gray literature to highlight the variability of mineral demand estimates, we conclude that mineral demand models should be interrogated more critically, and more attention should be paid to recycling industries, creating a more sustainable mining industry, and creating more material-efficient energy technologies.