Anthropogenic Attribution of the Increasing Seasonal Amplitude in Surface Ocean pCO2

被引：8

作者：

Joos, Fortunat ^{[1
,2
]}

Hameau, Angelique ^{[1
,2
]}

Frolicher, Thomas L. ^{[1
,2
]}

Stephenson, David B. ^{[3
]}

机构：

[1] Univ Bern, Phys Inst, Climate & Environm Phys, Bern, Switzerland

[2] Univ Bern, Oeschger Ctr Climate Change Res, Bern, Switzerland

[3] Univ Exeter, Dept Math & Stat, Exeter, England

来源：

GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS | 2023年 / 50卷 / 13期

基金：

瑞士国家科学基金会;

关键词：

surface ocean pCO2; detection and attribution; seasonal cycle; CMIP6 Earth system models; ATMOSPHERIC CO2; CARBON-DIOXIDE; DEOXYGENATION; EMERGENCE; EXTREMES; DRIVERS; SYSTEM; TIME;

D O I：

10.1029/2023GL102857

中图分类号：

P [天文学、地球科学];

学科分类号：

07 ;

摘要：

A positive trend in time has been noted in the seasonal amplitude of surface ocean pCO(2) over much of the oceans, which is expected to have detrimental impacts on marine ecosystems. To determine whether or not this has an anthropogenic cause, this study investigates historical climate simulations from the Detection and Attribution Model Intercomparison Project with and without anthropogenic forcing. The simulations with anthropogenic forcing show clear evidence of positive trends, whereas the simulations with constant preindustrial atmospheric CO2 and natural external forcing give only negligible trends. A statistical analysis of five zonal latitudinal bands reveals that the trends detected over 1990-2014 in an ensemble of six observational products are attributable to anthropogenic forcing in mid-latitudes (40 & DEG;N-10 & DEG;N, 10 & DEG;S-40 & DEG;S), while no trends are detected and modeled in the tropics and the Southern Ocean. Most models fail to represent the sign of the observed climatological mean seasonal cycle difference in high latitudes.

引用

页数：9

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