Decomposition and decoupling analysis of carbon emissions in China's construction industry using the generalized Divisia index method

As the pillar industry of the national economy, the construction industry contributes to economic growth while consuming large amounts of energy and generating carbon emissions. This study adopted the generalized Divisia index method (GDIM) to decompose carbon emissions in the construction industry (CECI) of China and its 30 provinces. A decoupling effort index based on factor decomposition was constructed to analyze the drivers of changes in the CECI and decoupling states during 2000-2020. The results were as follows. (1) The output scale was the main driver for increasing CECI, whereas the carbon intensities of area and output were the largest contributors to decreasing CECI. (2) The national construction industry showed expansive negative decoupling during the 10th-13th FYPs (Five-Year Plans). The decoupling states of provinces showed significant spatial and temporal differences, with most provinces showing negative decoupling and the number of decoupled provinces peaking in the 12th FYP. (3) The scale effect was the key inhibiting factor in the decoupling process of most provinces, while the intensity effect was the main promoting factor, and the efficiency effect was weak. The inhibitory effect of scale gradually weakened, while the promoting effect of intensity increased. Overall, this study expands on current research related to the driving factors of CECI and provides valuable insights into the low-carbon development of the construction industry in other emerging countries.