Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Cultivated Land from 2010 to 2020 in Long'an County, Karst Region, China

Spatio-temporal changes in cultivated land have a profound impact on food security and sustainable development. However, existing studies on spatio-temporal changes in cultivated land mostly focus on single factors, for instance quantity, quality and ecology, that cannot comprehensively reflect the changes in total production capacity and the sustainability of cultivated land. This study aims to construct a comprehensive analysis approach and to provide a reference basis for a comprehensive analysis of the extent of changes in overall cultivated land food-production capacity and the formulation of cultivated land conservation-related policies. This comprehensive analysis method constructed from three dimensions: quantity, production capacity and ecology, fully reflects the changes in the total amount, structure, rate of change, spatial distribution, quality, total production capacity and sustainability of cultivated land. The results from the application of this approach to Long'an County, Guangxi Province, China demonstrate that: (a) from 2010 to 2020, the total amount of cultivated land in Long'an County decreased sharply by 30.83%, accounted for mainly by the conversion into orchards, forest land and other garden land; (b) the quality of cultivated land improved by 2.71% on average, mostly in relation to natural factors; (c) the total food-production capacity of cultivated land decreased by 28.96% on average, mainly due to the decrease in the area of cultivated land; (d) both the ecological grade and the sustainability of cultivated land decreased slightly; (e) the barycenter of cultivated land migrated 3.3 km to the ecologically sensitive areas in the west, and the patch size of cultivated land decreased from an average of 2.60 hectares/pc in 2010 to that of 1.34 hectares/pc in 2020, suggesting increased fragmentation of cultivated land; and (f) the patch regularity of cultivated land decreased from 2.08 in 2010 to 1.76 in 2020, showing improved patch regularity and slightly better adaptability to mechanization. There were two main reasons for the lower, total food production capacity in Long'an County: first, the low comparative income of grain cultivation, because of which farmers spontaneously adjusted the agricultural cultivation structure to pursue high returns; and second, the lack of targeted government policies to protect cultivated land. In general, this comprehensive analysis method is applicable to other provinces in China or other regions abroad to provide a reference basis for a comprehensive understanding of changes in the food production capacity of cultivated land and the formulation of policies on cultivated land protection.