Symbolic threat from the West, belief in pro-Kremlin conspiracy theories, and attribution of blame for the war in Ukraine: A two-wave longitudinal study

In this two-wave longitudinal study, we examined the sense of symbolic threat from the West and Russia as ideological roots of motivated belief in pro-Kremlin conspiracy theories and the attribution of blame to Russia, the United States, and Ukraine for the war in Ukraine. Participants (N=690) completed questionnaires on symbolic threat from the West and Russia, belief in pro-Kremlin conspiracy theories about the war in Ukraine as well as generic anti-West and anti-Russian conspiracy theories, and blame for the war in Ukraine. The sense of symbolic threat from the West and pro-Kremlin conspiracy beliefs predicted each other in time and were substantially associated with increased blaming of Ukraine and the United States for the war in Ukraine. Conversely, symbolic threat from Russia along with the rejection of pro-Kremlin conspiracy theories predicted increased blaming of Russia over time. Motivated reasoning analyses suggested that the ideological link between the symbolic threat from the West and belief in anti-West conspiracy theories was stronger than the one between symbolic threat from Russia and belief in anti-Russian conspiracy theories. This suggests an existence of self-reinforcing relationship between the deep-rooted sense of symbolic threat and anti-West conspiracy theories which is exploited by various political actors.