Spatiotemporal analysis and mitigation potential of GHG emissions from the livestock sector in Turkey

Rising greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are a global concern, with the livestock industry playing a significant role. In Turkey, a surge in livestock populations has led to a 36% increase in agricultural GHG emissions over the past decade. To address this, a GIS-based model was developed, providing detailed insights into GHG emissions from the country's livestock sector at the district level. The study covers 970 districts from 2013 to 2021 to analyze spatiotemporal trends, identify hot spots of high emissions, and evaluate the mitigation potential through anaerobic digestion. Total GHG emissions from livestock sector was estimated as 65,421.42 Gg/year CO2-eq in 2021 with an increase of 30% from 2013 to 2021. Enteric fermentation has the largest contribution with 61%, while GHG emissions from manure management splits into 35% from direct N2O, %4 CH4, and 4% indirect N2O emissions. Bovine animals have the largest share with 70% of GHG emissions followed by sheep and goat with 29%, while the poultry has an insignificant contribution in GHG emissions. The spatiotemporal analysis results showed an overall increasing trend in GHG emissions, with hot spots mainly located in the eastern and southeastern parts of Turkey. 66 hot spot districts constitute 26% of the total GHG emissions and 44 of them have no biogas plant. Notably, anaerobic digestion revealing potential to reduce GHG emissions by 6% in these 66 priority districts, concurrently fostering renewable energy production. This study provides valuable insights into the spatiotemporal trends and density analysis of GHG emissions from livestock sector, which can aid policymakers in identifying GHG hot spots and where to prioritize for implementing mitigation strategies.