Killing the sacred dairy cow? Consumer preferences for plant-based milk alternatives

We examine the relationship between demand for plant-based milk alternatives and dairy milk using data from a survey and a discrete choice experiment completed by 902 Canadians. Our survey results show that most individuals who drink milk alternatives also consume dairy milk, and preferences for milk alternatives vary across consumption contexts. Using our experimental data, we estimate consumer preferences via a mixed logit model. These preferences are then used to calculate a set of price elasticities and to predict market shares for dairy milk in counterfactual simulations that exclude select milk alternatives. Although the elasticity of dairy milk with respect to the price of milk alternatives is relatively low, we predict that between 57% and 83% of respondents who purchase milk alternatives would have purchased dairy milk if milk alternatives were not available, depending on the counterfactual. We also show that preferences for milk alternatives are linked to age and food values. Finally, we use our experiment to test the impact of additional information about the impact of dairy milk on animal welfare, the environment, and nutrition on preferences for milk alternatives. The treatment effects are generally statistically insignificant. [EconLit Citations: L66, Q18, D12]