Influence of COVID-19 vaccination on the dynamics of new infected cases in the world

被引:3
作者
Kamal, Mustafa [1 ]
Atchade, Mintode Nicodome [2 ,3 ]
Sokadjo, Yves Morel [3 ]
Siddiqui, Sabir Ali [4 ]
Riad, Fathy H. [5 ]
Abd El-Raouf, M. M. [6 ]
Aldallal, Ramy [7 ]
Hussam, Eslam [8 ]
Alshanbari, Huda M. [9 ]
Alsuhabi, Hassan [10 ]
Gemeay, Ahmed M. [11 ]
机构
[1] Saudi Elect Univ, Coll Sci & Theoret Studies, Dept Basic Sci, Dammam 32256, Saudi Arabia
[2] Natl Univ Sci Technol Engn & Math, Natl Higher Sch Math Genius & Modelizat, Abomey, Benin
[3] Univ Abomey Calavi, Int Chair Math Phys & Applicat, ICMPA, UNESCO Chair, 072 BP 50, Cotonou, Benin
[4] Dhofar Univ, Coll Arts & Appl Sci, Dept Math & Sci, Salalah, Oman
[5] Jouf Univ, Coll Sci, Math Dept, POB 2014, Sakaka, Saudi Arabia
[6] Arab Acad Sci Technol & Maritime Transport AASTMT, Basic & Appl Sci Inst, Alexandria, Egypt
[7] Prince Sattam Abdulaziz Univ, Coll Business Adm Hawtat Bani Tamim, Dept Accounting, Al Kharj, Saudi Arabia
[8] Helwan Univ, Fac Sci, Dept Math, Cairo, Egypt
[9] Princess Nourah Bint Abdulrahman Univ, Coll Sci, Dept Math Sci, POB 84428, Riyadh 11671, Saudi Arabia
[10] Umm Al Qura Univ, Al Qunfudah Univ Coll, Dept Math, Mecca, Saudi Arabia
[11] Tanta Univ, Fac Sci, Dept Math, Tanta 31527, Egypt
关键词
count data; COVID-19; generalized time series; infectious disease; vaccine; statistical modeling; IMPACT; TRANSMISSION;
D O I
10.3934/mbe.2023156
中图分类号
Q [生物科学];
学科分类号
07 ; 0710 ; 09 ;
摘要
The initial COVID-19 vaccinations were created and distributed to the general population in 2020 thanks to emergency authorization and conditional approval. Consequently, numerous countries followed the process that is currently a global campaign. Taking into account the fact that people are being vaccinated, there are concerns about the effectiveness of that medical solution. Actually, this study is the first one focusing on how the number of vaccinated people might influence the spread of the pandemic in the world. From the Global Change Data Lab "Our World in Data", we were able to get data sets about the number of new cases and vaccinated people. This study is a longitudinal one from 14/12/2020 to 21/03/2021. In addition, we computed Generalized log-Linear Model on count time series (Negative Binomial distribution due to over dispersion in data) and implemented validation tests to confirm the robustness of our results. The findings revealed that when the number of vaccinated people increases by one new vaccination on a given day, the number of new cases decreases significantly two days after by one. The influence is not notable on the same day of vaccination. Authorities should increase the vaccination campaign to control well the pandemic. That solution has effectively started to reduce the spread of COVID-19 in the world.
引用
收藏
页码:3324 / 3341
页数:18
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