Population viability of the Andean bear (Tremarctos ornatus) in a scenario of hunting and habitat loss

The Andean bear is the only species of bear that inhabits South America. Its population is reduced due to the loss of habitat and indiscriminate hunting due to human -Andean bear interaction. The objective was to determine the population viability of the Andean bear in the paisaje Madidi Tambopata through computer modelling. For this, several scenarios were designed: base, habitat fragmentation and hunting, and combined effects of habitat fragmentation and hunting. Each scenario was simulated 1,000 times with 100 -year projections with the VORTEX 9.6 software. The following were evaluated: the probability of persistence, growth rate, and extinction time. The results indicate that the population of the Andean bear is viable (PP = 100%) in 100 years of simulation, growing by 0.04% annually, and there is no risk of extinction. However, hunting reduced the probability of persistence to 41%, and the growth rate decreased to -0.03% annually. In a fragmented landscape, the rate decreases to -0.04% due to inbreeding and the probability of extinction appears at 60 years. It is essential to establish conservation strategies that aim to control hunting and, simultaneously, establish conservation mechanisms that ensure continuous availability of suitable habitat.