Significant myopic shift over time: Sixteen-year trends in overall refraction and age of myopia onset among Chinese children, with a focus on ages 4-6 years

Background Myopia or near-sightedness is a major cause of blindness in China and typically develops between the ages of 6-12 years. We aimed to investigate the change in refractive error and the age of myopia onset in Chinese children from 2005 to 2021.Methods We first conducted a series of cross-sectional studies to determine the refractive states and the age of myopia onset over time, after which we analysed longitudinal data to investigate the dose-response relationship be-tween hyperopic reserve and future risk of myopia. The analysis was based on the refraction data of children aged 4-18 years who visited the Fudan University Eye and Ear, Nose, and Throat (FUEENT) Hospital, a large tertiary hospital in Shanghai, China, for eye examinations between 2005 and 2021. We examined the prevalence of hyperopia (spherical equivalent refractive error (SERE) >0.75D), pre-myopia (-0.50D<SERE <= 0.75D), and myopia (SERE <=-0.50D), the average SERE for each age group at the initial visit, the average age of myopia onset, and the safety threshold of hyperopic reserve against myopia onset.Results We included 870 372 eligible patients aged 4-18 years who attended examination between 2005 and 2021, 567 893 (65.2%) of whom were myopic at their initial visit to FUEENT. The mean SERE decreased in most (n/N = 14/15) of the age groups over the 16 calendar years, with a mean SERE for the whole cohort decreasing from-1.01D (standard deviation (SD) = 3.46D) in 2005 to-1.30D (SD = 3.11D) in 2021. The prevalence of premyopia in-creased over the 16 years (P < 0.001), while those of myopia and hyperopia remained largely stable (both P > 0.05). We observed a significant decrease in the prevalence of hyperopia (2005: 65.4% vs 2021: 51.1%; P< 0.001) and a significant increase in the prevalence of pre-myopia (2005: 19.0% vs 2021: 26.5%; P < 0.001) and myopia (2005: 15.6% vs 2021: 22.4%; P< 0.001) in children aged 4-6 years. We found an earlier myopia onset over time, with the mean age of onset decreasing from 10.6 years in 2005 to 7.6 years in 2021 (P < 0.001). Children with a hyperopic reserve of less than 1.50D were at increased risk of developing myopia during a median follow-up of 1.3 years.Conclusions We found an overall myopic shift in SERE in Chinese children aged 4-18 years over the past 16 years, particularly in those aged 4-6 years. The mean age of myopia onset decreased by three years over the same period. The "safety threshold" of hyperopic reserve we identified may help target the high-risk population for early prevention.