Water-energy-food nexus of local bioeconomy hub and future climate change impact implication

Policies on bioeconomy are some of the key emerging ones around the world to support sustainability in terms of using renewable resources. However, these may lead to significant demand for biomass feedstock which relies on limited resources, viz., water, land, and energy. The impact of climate change on water availability makes it more challenging. This paper demonstrates the analysis of the water, energy, and food resource nexus of a bioeconomy-based industrial complex and future climate change impact. The model structure consists of culti-vation, crop processing, and urban sectors. Sugarcane is the major crop in the case study area and is the main bioeconomy crop. The results indicate that the average sugarcane yield will be lower than the minimum industrial goal for the 2020s and 2030s decades. Consequently, sugarcane feedstock shortage may often occur. The drought situation tends to be increased, so groundwater resources can be the main reserve source of water. In all improvement scenarios on water supply management, nexus energy used for water acquisition was mainly for groundwater acquisition. Direct energy use in the cultivation process is high and fossil fuels based, while most of the energy used in processing came from biomass waste. This implies that technologies for water acquisition will be more important in the future and should be developed in terms of energy efficiency and the aspect of promoting the usage of renewable energy to reduce greenhouse gases and fossil fuels use. The impact of climate change will cause significant fluctuations in the annual rainfall characteristics of the study area. An additional irrigation water supply of about 250 mm and expansion to cover more than 90% of the cultivation area should be considered to secure the minimum supply of sugarcane for the local biorefinery complex in the following decades.