Analysis of the Spatial Distribution and Associated Factors of the Transmission Locations of COVID-19 in the First Four Waves in Hong Kong

Understanding the space-time pattern of the transmission locations of COVID-19, as well as the relationship between the pattern, socioeconomic status, and environmental factors, is important for pandemic prevention. Most existing research mainly analyzes the locations resided in or visited by COVID-19 cases, while few studies have been undertaken on the space-time pattern of the locations at which the transmissions took place and its associated influencing factors. To fill this gap, this study focuses on the space-time distribution patterns of COVID-19 transmission locations and the association between such patterns and urban factors. With Hong Kong as the study area, transmission chains of the four waves of COVID-19 outbreak in Hong Kong during the time period of January 2020 to June 2021 were reconstructed from the collected case information, and then the locations of COVID-19 transmission were inferred from the transmission chains. Statistically significant clusters of COVID-19 transmission locations at the level of tertiary planning units (TPUs) were detected and compared among different waves of COVID-19 outbreak. The high-risk areas and the associated influencing factors of different waves were also investigated. The results indicate that COVID-19 transmission began with the Hong Kong Island, further moved northward towards the New Territories, and finally shifted to the south Hong Kong Island, and the transmission population shows a difference between residential locations and non-residential locations. The research results can provide health authorities and policy-makers with useful information for pandemic prevention, as well as serve as a guide to the public in the avoidance of activities and places with a high risk of contagion.