Slope of the estimated glomerular filtration rate and its associated factors among individuals with chronic kidney disease in the general Japanese population

BackgroundTo suppress the incidence of end-stage kidney disease, we need to identify chronic kidney disease (CKD) patients with a high risk of rapid decline in the estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR). However, the current status of eGFR slope and its associated factors in the Japanese population have not been fully elucidated.MethodsAmong examinees aged 40-70 years in the 2014 Specific Health Checkup conducted by the National Health Insurance in Kobe, Japan (n = 61,985), we prospectively observed 7291 examinees with CKD stage G3 from 2014 to 2018.ResultsUntil 2018, 4221 examinees continued to undergo annual SHCs for a total of five checkups per subject and had available records of all necessary data. The median eGFR change was -0.22 ml/min/1.73 m2/year. Only 9.2% of those subjects showed rapid eGFR decline (faster than -2.0 ml/min/1.73 m2/year). Logistic regression analysis identified diabetes, smoking habits, high urinary protein levels, older age, high systolic blood pressure, and low serum low-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels as independent predictors for rapid eGFR decline. Hemoglobin A1c levels did not contribute to the eGFR slope in CKD stage-G3 subjects with diabetes and proteinuria.ConclusionMost Japanese CKD stage-G3 subjects had a very slow decline in eGFR. A small proportion of CKD individuals who have a predictive factor of rapid eGFR decline should receive considerable attention from a nephrologist.