Oil price shocks and US unemployment: evidence from disentangling the duration of unemployment spells in the labor market

被引:1
作者
Alsalman, Zeina [1 ]
机构
[1] Oakland Univ, Sch Business Adm, Dept Econ, 338B Elliott Hall, Rochester, MI 48309 USA
关键词
Oil price shocks; US unemployment rate; Unemployment duration; Structural VAR; REAL ECONOMIC-ACTIVITY; SUPPLY SHOCKS; DEMAND; AUTOREGRESSIONS; MACROECONOMY; RESPONSES; IMPACT;
D O I
10.1007/s00181-022-02351-0
中图分类号
F [经济];
学科分类号
02 ;
摘要
This paper examines how structural oil price shocks affect the US unemployment at the aggregate level and across the duration of unemployment spells. I find that adverse oil supply shocks produce a recessionary effect by significantly increasing the aggregate unemployment measures and the number of persons unemployed for 5 weeks or more. Aggregate demand shocks increase unemployment with a lag of a year and show a short-run fall in the number of unemployed between 5 and 26 weeks. While precautionary demand shocks have a muted effect on the unemployment rate, they temporarily raise short-term spells of unemployment but drop the number of unemployed between 5 and 26 weeks. Additionally, aggregate demand shocks are essential in explaining the duration of unemployment during the oil price surge of 2003-2008, the Great Recession, and the 2010-2014 period of stable oil prices. The findings also reflect that supply-driven shocks played a more important role in long-term unemployment during the 1970s-1980s period, whereas demand-driven shocks dominated the labor market during later periods of the 2000s.
引用
收藏
页码:479 / 511
页数:33
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