Public Debt and Growth: New Insights

被引：4

作者：

Ozmen, Ibrahim ^{[1
,3
]}

Mutascu, Mihai ^{[2
,4
,5
,6
]}

机构：

[1] Selcuk Univ, Aksehir Fac Econ & Adm Sci, Dept Publ Finance, TR-42550 Konya, Turkiye

[2] Univ Orleans, Fac Droit Econ & Gest, LEO Lab Econ Orleans FRE 2014, Rue Bois BP 6739, F-45067 Orleans, France

[3] West Univ Timisoara, Fac Econ & Business Adm, Dept Finance, 16 JH Pestalozzi St, Timisoara 300115, Romania

[4] Zeppelin Univ Friedrichshafen, Seemooser Horn, Seemooser Horn 20, D-88045 Friedrichshafen, Germany

[5] West Univ Timisoara, Fac Econ & Business Adm, 16 H Pestalozzi St, Timisoara 300115, Romania

[6] Univ Orleans Rue Blois, Fac Droit Econ & Gest, LEO Lab Econ Orleans, BP 6739, F-45067 Orleans, France

来源：

JOURNAL OF THE KNOWLEDGE ECONOMY | 2024年 / 15卷 / 02期

关键词：

Reverse causality; Public debt; Fourier causality; Asymmetric causality; H68; E6; C4; O4; ECONOMIC-GROWTH; GRANGER-CAUSALITY; GOVERNMENT DEBT; FISCAL-POLICY; EXTERNAL DEBT; OIL PRICES; THRESHOLD; AUSTERITY; COUNTRIES; TIME;

D O I：

10.1007/s13132-023-01441-3

中图分类号：

F [经济];

学科分类号：

02 ;

摘要：

This paper approaches the causality of public debt and economic growth from three perspectives: Historical for the data, theoretical for the relations, and econometrical for the examination. We examine causality for the United States (US), United Kingdom (UK), Sweden (SE), and Japan (JP) over the period starting from 1801 up to 2011, with the nonlinearity of Fourier and Asymmetric approaches. Asymmetric causality results point out that negative shocks in growth increase debt for SE, while negative shocks in debt decrease growth for the US. Fourier causality results show that there is a unidirectional causality for US and SE from growth to debt, while for the UK there is a bi-directional causality, namely reverse causality or hysteria theory. Asymmetric causality results do not confirm that debt decreases growth in any country, while Fourier causality results show reverse causality. This result has important policy implications specifically because economic growth influences the evolution of public debt with structural breaks.

引用

页码：8706 / 8736

页数：31

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