Development and validation of a model to determine the risk of esophageal strictures after endoscopic submucosal dissection for esophageal neoplasms

Background Currently, endoscopic submucosal dissection (ESD) is widely used as therapeutic methods for superficial esophageal neoplasms (SENs). However, patients are likely to develop esophageal strictures after ESD. Our study aims to explore the possible risk factors for esophageal strictures after ESD and develop and validate a risk model for predicting the progression of postoperative esophageal strictures. Methods Clinical data of patients who underwent ESD in our hospital for suspected early esophageal squamous cell carcinoma were collected from January 2014 to March 2020. The possible risk factors for postoperative esophageal strictures were analyzed by univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis. Eventually, a risk-scoring model was built, in which 70% of patients were used to develop the model and the remaining 30% were used for validation. Results A total of 553 patients who received ESD were involved, and the incidence of esophageal strictures after ESD was 16.6% (92/553). In our study, the operating time, circumferential range, lesion location, depth of infiltration, and R0 resection were independent risk factors for esophageal strictures after ESD. According to the risk of postoperative esophageal stenosis, a risk-scoring model for esophageal strictures prediction was developed. The risk score ranged from 0 to 11 points, and the risk scores were divided into low risk (0-3 points), intermediate risk (4-7 points), and high risk (8-11 points). The proportions of esophageal stenosis progression in the corresponding risk categories were 6.33%, 29.14%, and 100%. Conclusions We developed a risk-scoring model based on factors including circumferential range, lesion location, depth of infiltration, and R0 resection. It stratified patients into low-, intermediate-, and high-risk groups for postoperative esophageal strictures development. This scoring model may have the potential to guide the management of patients after ESD in the future.