How economic policy uncertainty affects foreign direct investment inflows: implications for the post-Covid-19 pandemic period

Purpose - This study investigates the impact of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on the inflows of foreign direct investment (FDI), specifically focusing on two components of FDI: greenfield investment and cross-border mergers and acquisitions (M&As). The objective is to analyze how EPU influences these two types of FDI differently. It further investigates how this impact varies during the Covid-19 pandemic. Design/methodology/approach - Data were collected from various sources such as the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), Policy uncertainty index and the World Bank database to create a sample covering 213 countries from 2003 to 2020. The research objective was accomplished by utilizing the panel ordinary least squares (OLS) with fixed effects estimator. Findings - The results demonstrate that countries that experience more EPU observe a decrease in FDI inflows. The authors also observe that FDI inflows have reduced due to the Covid-19 pandemic. Furthermore, the findings show that the impact of EPU is different between two components of FDI during the Covid-19 period. Specifically, the authors find that when uncertainty is trigged by the health crisis, there is an increase in FDI inflows in the form of cross-border M&As only. One possible reason is that cross-border M&As investors may take advantage of institutional quality (such as corruption) as an "efficient grease" to quickly expedite the entry process, which ultimately leads to a rise in cross-border M&As investment. Originality/value - Overall, the study attempts to demonstrate empirical evidence about how EPU affects FDI inflows with an up-to-date dataset. In addition, the authors illustrate the significance of breaking down total FDI inflows into two sub-categories when examining the relationship between EPU and FDI. Third, the authors prove that the influence of EPU on FDI inflows differ significantly among different types of FDI components.