The ICU-CARB score: a novel clinical scoring system to predict carbapenem-resistant gram-negative bacteria carriage in critically ill patients upon ICU admission

Background With the widespread spread of carbapenem-resistant gram-negative bacteria (CR-GNB) in medical facilities, the carriage of CR-GNB among critically ill patients has become a significant concern in intensive care units (ICU). This study aimed to develop a scoring system to identify CR-GNB carriers upon ICU admission.Methods Consecutive critically ill patients admitted to the ICU of Shanghai Ruijin Hospital between January 2017 and December 2020 were included. The patients were then divided into training and testing datasets at a 7:3 ratio. Parameters associated with CR-GNB carriage were identified using least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression analysis. Each parameter was assigned a numerical score ranging from 0 to 100 using logistic regression analysis. Subsequently, a four-tier risk-level system was developed based on the cumulative scores, and assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC).Results Of the 1736 patients included in this study, the prevalence of CR-GNB carriage was 10.60%. The clinical scoring system including seven variables (neurological disease, high-risk department history, length of stay >= 14 days, ICU history, invasive mechanical ventilation, gastrointestinal tube placement, and carbapenem usage) exhibited promising predictive capabilities. Patients were then stratified using the scoring system, resulting in CR-GNB carriage rates of 2.4%, 12.0%, 36.1%, and 57.9% at the respective risk levels (P < 0.001). Furthermore, the AUC of the developed model in the training set was calculated to be 0.82 (95% CI, 0.78-0.86), while internal validation yielded an AUC of 0.83 (95% CI, 0.77-0.89).Conclusions The ICU-CARB Score serves as a straightforward and precise tool that enables prompt evaluation of the risk of CR-GNB carriage at the time of ICU admission, thereby facilitating the timely implementation of targeted pre-emptive isolation.