Flood Risk Quantification, Transmission, and Propagation Analysis for Flood Water Utilization of Parallel Reservoirs

Joint operation of the reservoir system can greatly improve flood water utilization and alleviate the contradiction between water supply and water demand. But yet, the flood risk brought by forecast uncertainties transfers between the reservoirs and propagates from upstream to downstream, which is crucial for flood water utilization but is rarely investigated. To address this issue, this study proposes a FLWL optimal control framework, which consists of three modules: the FLWL upper bound derivation module, the flood risk analysis module, and the optimal FLWL decision-making module. The first module is to derive the upper bound relationship of the flood limited water level (FLWL), i.e., the specific substitution relationship of storage, for the parallel reservoirs coupling the capacity-constrained pre-release method and the aggregation-decomposition method. In the second module, the method to calculate the flood risk of the reservoirs and downstream caused by rainfall and runoff forecast uncertainties based on the total probability formula is proposed. In the third module, the transmission and propagation of flood risks in the parallel reservoir system under different rainfall grades are quantified, based on which the optimal FLWLs are determined. The implication in the Qinghe-Chaihe parallel reservoir system located in Northeast China shows that FLWL in Qinghe Reservoir and Chaihe Reservoir can be raised to 129.5 m from 127 m and 108 m from 104 m, respectively. Controlling the FLWL at any point in the safety domain can improve both flood water utilization and flood control benefits. However, the flood risk nonlinearly transfers between the parallel reservoirs and nonlinearly propagates from the upstream to the downstream. Based on this relationship, the optimal FLWLs of the reservoirs under different decision preferences are recommended.