Regional disparities, dynamic evolution, and spatial spillover effects of urban-rural carbon emission inequality in China

Objective This study recalculates the carbon emissions of urban and rural residents in China, analyzing the dynamic evolution trends of urban and rural carbon emissions. It explores the spatial spillover effects centered around the inequality in carbon emissions between urban and rural areas.Methods The study calculates the carbon emissions of urban and rural residents in each province based on the IPCC method. Non-parametric kernel density estimation is employed to depict the dynamic evolution characteristics of national, urban, and rural carbon emissions. The Theil Index is used to measure the disparities in urban and rural carbon emissions in major strategic regions, further applying the Theil Index to evaluate the inequality of urban and rural carbon emissions across provinces. This helps identify the driving factors affecting the inequality of urban and rural carbon emissions and their spatio-temporal effects.Finding Carbon emissions from urban and rural residents in China present a divergent development pattern. Urban emissions have increased, with inter-provincial disparities widening; rural emissions tend to stabilize, with slight growth in inter-provincial gaps. The overall inequality of carbon emissions in various regions of China experiences a three-phase journey of rise, decline, and stabilization. Urban inequality first increases then decreases, while rural inequality gradually lessens, showing clear regional and urban-rural differences. Market and government factors significantly impact the inequality of urban and rural carbon emissions. The development of the digital economy aids in reducing inequality and generates significant spatial spillover effects. The relationship between economic development level and carbon emission inequality is U-shaped. Industrial structure optimization can reduce urban-rural inequality, but its spatial spillover effect is not significant. Government intervention has limited effects, while environmental regulations may increase inequality. Opening up to the outside world helps reduce inequality, and the impact of population density is complex.