Sustain China's copper resources with domestic mining, trading, and recycling

Rapid urbanization and industrialization made China the world's largest refined copper producer and consumer. Insufficient copper ore reserves necessitated significant imports and scrap copper recycling. Using material flow and scenario analysis, this study examined historical copper supply and assessed future supply-demand balance. The results show that China's refined copper consumption soared from 2.3 Kt in 1949 to 14.43 Mt in 2020, with imports rising from 1.5 Kt to 11.77 Mt, resulting in a 75 % external dependence. In addition, primary copper importers were concentrated in the Americas. In 2020, China accumulated around 120 Mt of in-use stocks, enabling urban mineral resource development. Forecasted results indicate a persistent copper supply deficit. Recycling copper scrap is crucial to bridge the supply-demand gap. This study enhances understanding of copper's historical supply and consumption, providing policymakers with suggestions for sustainable copper resource management.