Risk factors associated with high-risk nodal disease in patients considered for active surveillance of papillary thyroid microcarcinoma without extrathyroidal extension

Background: Active surveillance (AS) has become an alternative treatment approach for papillary thyroid microcarcinoma (PTMC). The purpose of this study is to uncover the clinicopathological factors associated with high-risk nodal disease in order to select proper candidates for AS of PTMC.Methods: We retrospectively reviewed 5,329 patients with PTMC without extrathyroidal extension (ETE) who underwent thyroidectomy with central compartment neck dissection (CCND) between 2007 and 2021 at Seoul St. Mary's Hospital. Patients with more than five metastatic lymph nodes (MLNs) (higher-risk N1 disease) and/or lateral neck node metastases (N1b disease) were defined as having high-risk nodal disease. The clinicopathological factors associated with high-risk nodal disease were analyzed.Results: A total of 415 (7.8%) patients had higher-risk N1 disease. These patients were younger on average, included a higher proportion of males, and had a larger tumor size and more frequent capsular invasion and multifocality compared with other patients. For the tumor size, a cutoff value of 0.65 cm was the best predictor of nodal risk groups. In a multivariate analysis, the independent risk factors associated with higher-risk N1 disease were younger age, male sex, tumor size >0.65 cm, and the presence of capsular invasion and/or multifocality. A total of 246 (4.6%) patients had N1b disease at initial diagnosis. In a multivariate analysis, the independent risk factors associated with N1b disease were younger age, male sex, tumor size >0.65 cm, and the presence of capsular invasion and/or multifocality.Conclusions: Young age, male sex, tumor size >0.65 cm, and presence of capsular invasion and/or multifocality can be considered risk factors for high-risk nodal disease in PTMC. Therefore, cautious observation is necessary for AS of patients with these characteristics.