Dynamic changes in provincial exhaust emissions in China in the carbon peak and neutrality setting: based on the effects of energy consumption and economic growth

Reducing exhaust emissions, promoting economic development, and realizing clean energy utilization have always been concerns in China. To measure the relationship between them, this study selects the data related to energy consumption, economic growth, and exhaust emissions from 2000 to 2019 in 30 Chinese provinces. By constructing a panel vector autoregressive (PVAR) model, the dynamic relationship between them in China is quantitatively analyzed. The results show that there is a long-term interaction between energy consumption, economic growth, and exhaust emissions. Among them, economic growth is highly dependent on energy consumption, but it can promote the reduction of exhaust emissions. However, energy consumption will produce a large amount of industrial waste, such as sulfur dioxide and carbon dioxide emissions. Specifically, the industrial structure and energy structure have the most obvious impact on reducing industrial sulfur dioxide emissions and carbon emissions, with the proportion between 0.071-0.090 and 0.031-0.032, respectively. Therefore, the adjustment of industrial structure and energy structure is the key to exhaust emission reduction.