Associations Between Extreme Temperatures and Cardiovascular Cause-Specific Mortality: Results From 27 Countries

被引：142

作者：

Alahmad, Barrak ^{[1
,4
]}

Khraishah, Haitham ^{[5
]}

Roye, Dominic ^{[6
,7
]}

Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana Maria ^{[8
,9
,10
]}

Guo, Yuming ^{[13
]}

Papatheodorou, Stefania I. ^{[2
]}

Achilleos, Souzana ^{[14
,15
]}

Acquaotta, Fiorella ^{[16
]}

Armstrong, Ben ^{[10
]}

Bell, Michelle L. ^{[17
]}

Pan, Shih-Chun ^{[18
]}

Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho, Micheline de Sousa ^{[19
]}

Colistro, Valentina ^{[21
]}

Dang, Tran Ngoc ^{[22
]}

Van Dung, Do ^{[22
]}

De Donato, Francesca K. ^{[23
]}

Entezari, Alireza ^{[24
]}

Guo, Yue-Liang Leon ^{[18
,25
,26
,27
]}

Hashizume, Masahiro ^{[28
]}

Honda, Yasushi ^{[29
]}

Indermitte, Ene ^{[30
]}

Iniguez, Carmen ^{[7
,31
]}

Jaakkola, Jouni J. K. ^{[32
,33
,34
]}

Kim, Ho ^{[35
]}

Lavigne, Eric ^{[36
]}

Lee, Whanhee ^{[17
,37
]}

Li, Shanshan ^{[13
,38
]}

Madureira, Joana ^{[39
,41
,42
]}

Mayvaneh, Fatemeh ^{[24
]}

Orru, Hans ^{[30
]}

Overcenco, Ala ^{[43
]}

Ragettli, Martina S. ^{[44
,45
]}

Ryti, Niilo R. I.

Saldiva, Paulo Hilario Nascimento ^{[20
]}

Scovronick, Noah ^{[46
]}

Seposo, Xerxes ^{[47
]}

Sera, Francesco ^{[48
]}

Silva, Susana Pereira ^{[40
]}

Stafoggia, Massimo ^{[23
]}

Tobias, Aurelio ^{[47
,49
]}

Garshick, Eric ^{[50
,51
]}

Bernstein, Aaron S. ^{[3
,52
]}

Zanobetti, Antonella ^{[1
]}

Schwartz, Joel ^{[1
]}

Gasparrini, Antonio ^{[11
,12
]}

Koutrakis, Petros ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] Harvard TH Chan Sch Publ Hlth, Dept Environm Hlth, 401 Pk Dr,Landmark Ctr Room 412J, Boston, MA 02115 USA

[2] Harvard TH Chan Sch Publ Hlth, Dept Epidemiol, Boston, MA USA

[3] Harvard TH Chan Sch Publ Hlth, Ctr Climate Hlth & Global Environm, Boston, MA USA

[4] Kuwait Univ, Fac Publ Hlth, Environm & Occupat Hlth Dept, Kuwait, Kuwait

[5] Univ Maryland, Med Ctr, Div Cardiol, Baltimore, MD 21201 USA

[6] Univ Santiago de Compostela, Dept Geog, Santiago De Compostela, Spain

[7] CIBER Epidemiol & Salud Publ, Madrid, Spain

[8] Univ Bern, Inst Social & Prevent Med, Bern, Switzerland

[9] Univ Bern, Oeschger Ctr Climate Change Res, Bern, Switzerland

[10] London Sch Hyg & Trop Med, Dept Publ Hlth Environm & Soc, London, England

[11] London Sch Hyg & Trop Med, Ctr Stat Methodol, London, England

[12] London Sch Hyg & Trop Med, Ctr Climate Change & Planetary Hlth, London, England

[13] Monash Univ, Sch Publ Hlth & Prevent Med, Dept Epidemiol & Prevent Med, Melbourne, Vic, Australia

[14] Cyprus Univ Technol, Sch Hlth Sci, Limassol, Cyprus

[15] Univ Nicosia, Sch Med, Dept Primary Care & Populat Hlth, Nicosia, Cyprus

[16] Univ Torino, Dept Earth Sci, Turin, Italy

[17] Yale Univ, Sch Environm, New Haven, CT USA

[18] Natl Hlth Res Inst, Natl Inst Environm Hlth Sci, Zhunan, Taiwan

[19] Univ Sao Paulo, Inst Adv Studies, Sao Paulo, Brazil

[20] Univ Sao Paulo, Dept Pathol, Fac Med, Sao Paulo, Brazil

[21] Univ Republica, Dept Quantitat Methods, Sch Med, Montevideo, Uruguay

[22] Univ Med & Pharm Ho Chi Minh City, Dept Environm Hlth, Fac Publ Hlth, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam

[23] Dept Epidemiol, Lazio Reg Hlth Serv, Rome, Italy

[24] Hakim Sabzevari Univ, Fac Geog & Environm Sci, Sabzevar, Iran

[25] Natl Taiwan Univ, Environm & Occupat Med, Taipei, Taiwan

[26] Natl Taiwan Univ, Inst Environm & Occupat Hlth Sci, Taipei, Taiwan

[27] Natl Taiwan Univ Hosp, Taipei, Taiwan

[28] Univ Tokyo, Dept Global Hlth Policy, Grad Sch Med, Tokyo, Japan

[29] Natl Inst Environm Studies, Ctr Climate Change Adaptat, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan

[30] Univ Tartu, Dept Family Med & Publ Hlth, Tartu, Estonia

[31] Univ Valencia, Dept Stat & Computat Res, Valencia, Spain

[32] Univ Oulu, Ctr Environm & Resp Hlth Res, Oulu, Finland

[33] Univ Oulu, Med Res Ctr Oulu, Oulu, Finland

[34] Univ Oulu, Bioctr Oulu, Oulu, Finland

[35] Seoul Natl Univ, Grad Sch Publ Hlth, Seoul, South Korea

[36] Univ Ottawa, Sch Epidemiol & Publ Hlth, Fac Med, Ottawa, ON, Canada

[37] Pusan Natl Univ, Sch Biomed Engn, Coll Informat & Biomed Engn, Yangsan, South Korea

[38] Monash Univ, Climate Air Qual Res Unit, Sch Publ Hlth & Prevent Med, Melbourne, Vic, Australia

[39] Inst Nacl Saude Dr Ricardo Jorge, Dept Environm Hlth, Porto, Portugal

[40] Inst Nacl Saude Dr Ricardo Jorge, Dept Epidemiol, Lisbon, Portugal

[41] Univ Porto, Epidemiol Res Unit EPIUnit, Inst Saude Publ, Porto, Portugal

[42] Univ Porto, Lab Integrat & Translat Res Populat Hlth, Inst Saude Publ, Porto, Portugal

[43] Minist Hlth, Lab Management Sci & Publ Hlth, Natl Agcy Publ Hlth, Kishinev, Moldova

[44] Univ Basel, Dept Epidemiol & Publ Hlth, Swiss Trop & Publ Hlth Inst, Basel, Switzerland

[45] Univ Basel, Basel, Switzerland

[46] Emory Univ, Dept Environm Hlth, Rollins Sch Publ Hlth, Atlanta, GA 30322 USA

[47] Nagasaki Univ, Sch Trop Med & Global Hlth, Nagasaki, Japan

[48] Univ Florence, Dept Stat Comp Sci & Applicat G Parenti, Florence, Italy

[49] Spanish Council Sci Res, Inst Environm Assessment & Water Res, Barcelona, Spain

[50] Harvard Med Sch, Pulm Allergy Sleep & Crit Care Med Sect, Dept Med, Vet Affairs Boston Healthcare Syst, West Roxbury, MA USA

来源：

CIRCULATION | 2023年 / 147卷 / 01期

基金：

英国自然环境研究理事会; 英国医学研究理事会;

关键词：

climate change; cold temperature; heart failure; heat; hot temperature; myocardial ischemia; stroke; AMBIENT-TEMPERATURE; SEASONAL-VARIATIONS; AIR-TEMPERATURE; HEAT; WEATHER; METAANALYSIS; MORBIDITY;

D O I：

10.1161/CIRCULATIONAHA.122.061832

中图分类号：

R5 [内科学];

学科分类号：

1002 ; 100201 ;

摘要：

Background:Cardiovascular disease is the leading cause of death worldwide. Existing studies on the association between temperatures and cardiovascular deaths have been limited in geographic zones and have generally considered associations with total cardiovascular deaths rather than cause-specific cardiovascular deaths. Methods:We used unified data collection protocols within the Multi-Country Multi-City Collaborative Network to assemble a database of daily counts of specific cardiovascular causes of death from 567 cities in 27 countries across 5 continents in overlapping periods ranging from 1979 to 2019. City-specific daily ambient temperatures were obtained from weather stations and climate reanalysis models. To investigate cardiovascular mortality associations with extreme hot and cold temperatures, we fit case-crossover models in each city and then used a mixed-effects meta-analytic framework to pool individual city estimates. Extreme temperature percentiles were compared with the minimum mortality temperature in each location. Excess deaths were calculated for a range of extreme temperature days. Results:The analyses included deaths from any cardiovascular cause (32 154 935), ischemic heart disease (11 745 880), stroke (9 351 312), heart failure (3 673 723), and arrhythmia (670 859). At extreme temperature percentiles, heat (99th percentile) and cold (1st percentile) were associated with higher risk of dying from any cardiovascular cause, ischemic heart disease, stroke, and heart failure as compared to the minimum mortality temperature, which is the temperature associated with least mortality. Across a range of extreme temperatures, hot days (above 97.5th percentile) and cold days (below 2.5th percentile) accounted for 2.2 (95% empirical CI [eCI], 2.1-2.3) and 9.1 (95% eCI, 8.9-9.2) excess deaths for every 1000 cardiovascular deaths, respectively. Heart failure was associated with the highest excess deaths proportion from extreme hot and cold days with 2.6 (95% eCI, 2.4-2.8) and 12.8 (95% eCI, 12.2-13.1) for every 1000 heart failure deaths, respectively. Conclusions:Across a large, multinational sample, exposure to extreme hot and cold temperatures was associated with a greater risk of mortality from multiple common cardiovascular conditions. The intersections between extreme temperatures and cardiovascular health need to be thoroughly characterized in the present day-and especially under a changing climate.

引用

页码：35 / 46

页数：12

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