Impacts of Climate Change on Extreme Precipitation Events and Urban Waterlogging: A Case Study of Beijing

This study investigated the adverse impact of climate change and climate-related uncertainties on urban waterlogging. Based on multiclimate models, the future extreme precipitation and urban waterlogging under uncertainties was assessed for Beijing. Future rainfall scenarios under two representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5/RCP8.5) were generated by the Delta change method combined with Chicago design storm. The InfoWorks ICM was used to simulate the extent of urban waterlogging. Results showed that urban waterlogging in Beijing would increase, which would be induced not only by more severe climate changes, but also by the limited capacity of drainage systems. In addition, the model uncertainties were found to be increased with both the precipitation intensity and the level of climate change, potentially reaching up to 109%. Therefore, this study highlights the importance for taking climate change and the consequent uncertainties into consideration when designing waterlogging prevention measures.