The impacts of trade intensity with China on carbon emissions in belt and road countries

This study uses country-level panel data covering 97 Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) countries for the period 2002-2017 and a dynamic panel system generalized method of moments model to investigate the impacts of trade intensity with China on per capita carbon emissions of BRI countries. The study finds that import intensity from China has reduced and export intensity to China has increased per capita carbon emissions of BRI countries. The findings are robust in using instrumental variables, explaining by energy intensity, and dividing the sample into different groups and different periods. Particularly, the absolute values of the coefficients of import intensity (-0.0071) and export intensity (0.0212) in resource-rich group are much higher than those in resource-poor group (-0.0046 and 0.0028), and the impacts are strengthened after 2013. Therefore, China should adjust trade relations with BRI countries to help them reduce carbon emissions while raising incomes under the context of BRI.