Climate change in the Horn of Africa: causations for violent extremism

Scientific evidence suggests our planet is experiencing climatic changes: increases in regional temperatures, variations in seasonal precipitation, stronger storms, sea level rise, and decreases in water availability. Consequently, these climatic changes have resulted in elevated rates of human migration, food insecurities, increased socioeconomic inequalities, civil conflict, and acts of terrorism. The purpose of this study is to assess the effects of climate change and its relationship to reported acts of terrorism in Somalia. Using a negative binomial regression model, various variables related to climate change were evaluated from 1991 to 2019. This study identified that annual increases in charcoal production, greenhouse gas emissions, and oil consumption were associated with reported terrorism attacks. Additionally, annual decreases in mean precipitation were also shown to be related to acts of terrorism. Controlling for the gross domestic product growth rate, the population growth rate, and state weakness, this study also determined that annual decreases in state weakness as well as the gross domestic product growth rate were also associated with reported terrorism incidents. Policy implications will be discussed.