Structural, static, and dynamic functional MRI predictors for conversion from mild cognitive impairment to Alzheimer's disease: Inter-cohort validation of Shanghai Memory Study and ADNI

Mild cognitive impairment (MCI) is a critical prodromal stage of Alzheimer's disease (AD), and the mechanism underlying the conversion is not fully explored. Construction and inter-cohort validation of imaging biomarkers for predicting MCI conversion is of great challenge at present, due to lack of longitudinal cohorts and poor reproducibility of various study-specific imaging indices. We proposed a novel framework for inter-cohort MCI conversion prediction, involving comparison of structural, static, and dynamic functional brain features from structural magnetic resonance imaging (sMRI) and resting-state functional MRI (fMRI) between MCI converters (MCI_C) and non-converters (MCI_NC), and support vector machine for construction of prediction models. A total of 218 MCI patients with 3-year follow-up outcome were selected from two independent cohorts: Shanghai Memory Study cohort for internal cross-validation, and Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) cohort for external validation. In comparison with MCI_NC, MCI_C were mainly characterized by atrophy, regional hyperactivity and inter-network hypo-connectivity, and dynamic alterations characterized by regional and connectional instability, involving medial temporal lobe (MTL), posterior parietal cortex (PPC), and occipital cortex. All imaging-based prediction models achieved an area under the curve (AUC) > 0.7 in both cohorts, with the multi-modality MRI models as the best with excellent performances of AUC > 0.85. Notably, the combination of static and dynamic fMRI resulted in overall better performance as relative to static or dynamic fMRI solely, supporting the contribution of dynamic features. This inter-cohort validation study provides a new insight into the mechanisms of MCI conversion involving brain dynamics, and paves a way for clinical use of structural and functional MRI biomarkers in future.