Spatiotemporal characteristics and zonal analysis of carbon balance in county-level regions: case study of Jiangsu Province

In China, county-level regions play a pivotal role in achieving dual carbon goals. In this study, we analyzed the spatiotemporal characteristics of carbon balance coefficients for counties in Jiangsu Province from 2000 to 2021. The logarithmic mean Divisia index decomposition method explored the factors influencing county-level carbon balance. The findings indicated that CO2 emissions in Jiangsu Province increased from 192 million tons in 2001 to 637 million tons in 2011 and exhibited a small fluctuation from 2012 to 2021. A "higher in the south, lower in the north" distribution pattern emerged, with high CO2 emission areas concentrated in the economically developed south. Vegetative carbon sequestration increased from 142 million tons in 2000 to 171 million tons in 2021 with a "higher boundary and lower at the center" distribution pattern. High carbon sequestration areas were mainly in regions with abundant natural resources and vegetation. The number of counties experiencing carbon imbalance rose from 63 in 2000 to 95 in 2021, with a spatial distribution similar to high carbon emissions. Economic development and urbanization accelerated carbon imbalance, whereas technological advancement and reduced regional carbon fixation pressure effectively alleviated it. Pursuing of dual carbon goals can be supported by reducing emissions and increasing carbon sinks.