Making Big Decisions The Impact of Moves on Marriage among US Army Personnel

We use exogenously determined, long-distance relocations of U.S. Army soldiers to investigate the impact of moving on marriage. In an event study analysis, we find that marriage rates increase sharply around the time of a move. Reduced-form exposure analysis reveals that an additional move over a five-year period increases the likelihood of marriage by 14 percent, a magnitude similar to those in observational data on civilians. Moves increase childbearing by a similar magnitude, suggesting that marriages induced by a move are formed with long-term intentions. We explore implications of our findings for theories of marriage related to search, bargaining, and decision-making costs.