The application of clinical variable-based nomogram in predicting overall survival in malignant phyllodes tumors of the breast

Background: We aimed to explore prognostic risk factors in patients with malignant phyllodes tumors (PTs) of the breast and construct a survival prediction model. Methods: The Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database was used to collect information on patients with malignant breast PTs from 2004 to 2015. The patients were randomly divided into training and validation groups using R software. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses were used to screen out independent risk factors. Then, a nomogram model was developed in the training group and validated in the validation group, and the prediction performance and concordance were evaluated. Results: The study included 508 patients with malignant PTs of the breast, including 356 in the training group and 152 in the validation group. Univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazard regression analyses showed that age, tumor size, tumor stage, regional lymph node metastasis (N), distant metastasis (M) and tumor grade were independent risk factors for the 5-year survival rate of patients with breast PTs in the training group (p < 0.05). These factors were used to construct the nomogram prediction model. The results showed that the C-indices of the training and validation groups were 0.845 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.802-0.888) and 0.784 (95% CI 0.688-0.880), respectively. The calibration curves of the two groups were close to the ideal 45 degrees reference line and showed good performance and concordance. Receiver operating characteristic and decision curve analysis curves showed that the nomogram has better predictive accuracy than other clinical factors. Conclusion: The nomogram prediction model constructed in this study has good predictive value. It can effectively assess the survival rates of patients with malignant breast PTs, which will aid in the personalized management and treatment of clinical patients.