The Russian coal industry in an uncertain world: Finally pivoting to Asia?

Despite the urgent need to reduce coal consumption to mitigate climate change, coal has received renewed interest as a source of energy due to the perfect storm of climate, health, geopolitical and energy crises. Post-COVID recovery boosted global coal production and Asian coal consumption. Because of the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine, coal saw a rise in demand in Europe to replace sanctioned natural gas and oil. Combined with volatile prices, these developments highlight profound uncertainties for the world's coal exporters. This paper focuses on Russia, which so far has been the world's largest fossil fuel exporter and third-largest coal exporter and where the coal sector is the backbone of several regional economies and local communities. Using the Triple Embeddedness Framework (TEF), the paper reviews internal and external pressures on the Russian coal industry and evaluates its capacity to adapt to the rapidly changing socio-political and techno-economic environment. Russian coal exporters have attempted to accelerate their shift to the East following the European Union's sanctions over the war in Ukraine and the Russian coal infrastructure is being expanded to serve the Asia-Pacific market. The analysis concludes that the Russian coal industry is not preparing for more long-term changes in international coal markets, and this exacerbates the magnitude of risks for local communities and regional economies within Russia as well as for global decarbonisation.