Age of onset and cumulative risk of mental disorders: a cross-national analysis of population surveys from 29 countries

被引：236

作者：

McGrath, John J. ^{[1
,2
,3
]}

Al-Hamzawi, Ali ^{[5
]}

Alonso, Jordi ^{[6
,7
,8
]}

Altwaijri, Yasmin ^{[9
]}

Andrade, Laura H. ^{[10
]}

Bromet, Evelyn J. ^{[11
]}

Bruffaerts, Ronny ^{[12
]}

Caldas de Almeida, Jose Miguel ^{[13
,14
]}

Chardoul, Stephanie ^{[15
]}

Chiu, Wai Tat ^{[16
]}

Degenhardt, Louisa ^{[18
]}

Demler, Olga V. ^{[17
,19
]}

Ferry, Finola ^{[20
]}

Gureje, Oye ^{[21
]}

Maria Haro, Josep ^{[22
,23
,24
]}

Karam, Elie G. ^{[25
,26
,27
]}

Karam, Georges ^{[26
,27
]}

Khaled, Salma M. ^{[28
]}

Kovess-Masfety, Viviane ^{[29
]}

Magno, Marta ^{[30
]}

Medina-Mora, Maria Elena ^{[31
]}

Moskalewicz, Jacek ^{[32
]}

Navarro-Mateu, Fernando ^{[33
,34
,35
]}

Nishi, Daisuke ^{[36
]}

Plana-Ripoll, Oleguer ^{[3
,4
]}

Posada-Villa, Jose ^{[37
]}

Rapsey, Charlene ^{[38
]}

Sampson, Nancy A. ^{[16
]}

Carlos Stagnaro, Juan ^{[39
]}

Stein, Dan J. ^{[40
,41
,42
]}

ten Have, Margreet ^{[43
]}

Torres, Yolanda ^{[44
]}

Vladescu, Cristian ^{[45
]}

Woodruff, Peter W. ^{[46
]}

Zarkov, Zahari ^{[47
]}

Kessler, Ronald C. ^{[16
]}

机构：

[1] Queensland Ctr Mental Hlth Res, Brisbane, Qld 4076, Australia

[2] Univ Queensland, Queensland Brain Inst, Brisbane, Qld, Australia

[3] Aarhus Univ, Natl Ctr Register Based Res, Aarhus, Denmark

[4] Aarhus Univ, Dept Clin Epidemiol, Aarhus, Denmark

[5] Univ Al Qadisiya, Coll Med, Al Diwaniya, Iraq

[6] Hosp del Mar Med Res Inst, Hlth Serv Res Unit, Barcelona, Spain

[7] Univ Pompeu Fabra, Dept Med & Life Sci, Barcelona, Spain

[8] Ctr Invest Biomed Red Epidemiol & Salud Publ, Barcelona, Spain

[9] King Faisal Specialist Hosp & Res Ctr, Epidemiol Sect, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia

[10] Univ Sao Paulo, Med Sch, Inst Psychiat, Sect Psychiat Epidemiol, Sao Paulo, Brazil

[11] SUNY Stony Brook, Sch Med, Dept Psychiat, Stony Brook, NY 11794 USA

[12] Katholieke Univ Leuven, Univ Psychiat Ctr, Leuven, Belgium

[13] Univ Nova Lisboa, Lisbon Inst Global Mental Hlth, Fac Ciencias Med, Lisbon, Portugal

[14] Univ Nova Lisboa, Chron Dis Res Ctr, Fac Ciencias Med, Lisbon, Portugal

[15] Univ Michigan, Inst Social Res, Survey Res Ctr, Ann Arbor, MI USA

[16] Harvard Univ, Harvard Med Sch, Dept Hlth Care Policy, Boston, MA 02115 USA

[17] Harvard Univ, Harvard Med Sch, Brigham & Womens Hosp, Dept Med, Boston, MA 02115 USA

[18] Univ New South Wales, Natl Drug & Alcohol Res Ctr, Sydney, NSW, Australia

[19] Eidgenoss TH Zurich, Dept Comp Sci, Zurich, Switzerland

[20] Ulster Univ, Sch Psychol, Belfast, Antrim, North Ireland

[21] Univ Coll Hosp, Dept Psychiat, Ibadan, Nigeria

[22] Parc Sanitari Sant Joan Deu, Res Teaching & Innovat Unit, Barcelona, Spain

[23] Ctr Biomed Res Mental Hlth, Madrid, Spain

[24] Univ Barcelona, Dept Med, Barcelona, Spain

[25] St George Hosp Univ, Dept Psychiat & Clin Psychol, Med Ctr, Beirut, Lebanon

[26] Univ Balamand, Fac Med, Beirut, Lebanon

[27] Inst Dev Res Advocacy & Appl Care, Beirut, Lebanon

[28] Qatar Univ, Social & Econ Survey Res Inst, Doha, Qatar

[29] Univ Paris Cite, Inst Psychol, Paris, France

[30] Ist Ricovero Cura Carattere Sci Ist Ctr San Giova, Unit Epidemiol & Evaluat Psychiat, Brescia, Italy

[31] Natl Inst Psychiat Ramon de la Fuente Muniz, Mexico City, DF, Mexico

[32] Inst Psychiat & Neurol, Warsaw, Poland

[33] Serv Murciano Salud, Unidad Docencia Invest & Formac Salud Mental UDIF, Gerencia Salud Mental, Murcia, Spain

[34] Murcia Biomed Res Inst, Murcia, Spain

[35] Ctr Invest Biomed Red Epidemiol & Publ Hlth Murci, Murcia, Spain

[36] Univ Tokyo, Grad Sch Med, Dept Mental Hlth, Tokyo, Japan

[37] Colegio Mayor de Cundinamarca Univ, Fac Social Sci, Bogota, Colombia

[38] Univ Otago, Dept Psychol Med, Dunedin, New Zealand

[39] Univ Buenos Aires, Fac Med, Dept Psiquiatria Salud Mental, Buenos Aires, DF, Argentina

[40] Univ Cape Town, Dept Psychiat & Mental Hlth, Cape Town, South Africa

[41] Univ Cape Town, South African Med Council Res Unit Risk & Resilie, Cape Town, South Africa

[42] Groote Schuur Hosp, Cape Town, South Africa

[43] Netherlands Inst Mental Hlth & Addict, Trimbos Inst, Utrecht, Netherlands

[44] Inst Ciencias Salud, Ctr Excellence Res Mental Hlth, Medellin, Colombia

[45] Natl Inst Hlth Serv Management, Bucharest, Romania

[46] Univ Sheffield, Dept Neurosci, Sheffield, S Yorkshire, England

[47] Natl Ctr Publ Hlth & Anal, Dept Mental Hlth, Sofia, Bulgaria

来源：

LANCET PSYCHIATRY | 2023年 / 10卷 / 09期

关键词：

LIFETIME PREVALENCE; HEALTH; MORTALITY; SEEKING; SEX;

D O I：

10.1016/S2215-0366(23)00193-1

中图分类号：

R749 [精神病学];

学科分类号：

100205 ;

摘要：

Background Information on the frequency and timing of mental disorder onsets across the lifespan is of fundamental importance for public health planning. Broad, cross-national estimates of this information from coordinated general population surveys were last updated in 2007. We aimed to provide updated and improved estimates of age-of-onset distributions, lifetime prevalence, and morbid risk. Methods In this cross-national analysis, we analysed data from respondents aged 18 years or older to the World Mental Health surveys, a coordinated series of cross-sectional, face-to-face community epidemiological surveys administered between 2001 and 2022. In the surveys, the WHO Composite International Diagnostic Interview, a fully structured psychiatric diagnostic interview, was used to assess age of onset, lifetime prevalence, and morbid risk of 13 DSM-IV mental disorders until age 75 years across surveys by sex. We did not assess ethnicity. The surveys were geographically clustered and weighted to adjust for selection probability, and standard errors of incidence rates and cumulative incidence curves were calculated using the jackknife repeated replications simulation method, taking weighting and geographical clustering of data into account. Findings We included 156 331 respondents from 32 surveys in 29 countries, including 12 low-income and middle-income countries and 17 high-income countries, and including 85 308 (54.5%) female respondents and 71 023 (45.4%) male respondents. The lifetime prevalence of any mental disorder was 28.6% (95% CI 27.9-29.2) for male respondents and 29.8% (29.2-30.3) for female respondents. Morbid risk of any mental disorder by age 75 years was 46.4% (44.9-47.8) for male respondents and 53.1% (51.9-54.3) for female respondents. Conditional probabilities of first onset peaked at approximately age 15 years, with a median age of onset of 19 years (IQR 14-32) for male respondents and 20 years (12-36) for female respondents. The two most prevalent disorders were alcohol use disorder and major depressive disorder for male respondents and major depressive disorder and specific phobia for female respondents. Interpretation By age 75 years, approximately half the population can expect to develop one or more of the 13 mental disorders considered in this Article. These disorders typically first emerge in childhood, adolescence, or young adulthood. Services should have the capacity to detect and treat common mental disorders promptly and to optimise care that suits people at these crucial parts of the life course. Copyright (c) 2023 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

引用

页码：668 / 681

页数：14

共 27 条

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