Impact of SARS-CoV-2 vaccination of children ages 5-11 years on COVID-19 disease burden and resilience to new variants in the United States, November 2021-March 2022: A multi-model study

被引：21

作者：

Borchering, Rebecca K. ^{[1
]}

Mullany, Luke C. ^{[2
]}

Howerton, Emily ^{[1
]}

Chinazzi, Matteo ^{[3
]}

Smith, Claire P. ^{[4
]}

Qin, Michelle ^{[5
]}

Reich, Nicholas G. ^{[6
]}

Contamin, Lucie ^{[7
]}

Levander, John ^{[7
]}

Kerr, Jessica ^{[7
]}

Espino, J. ^{[7
]}

Hochheiser, Harry ^{[7
]}

Lovett, Kaitlin ^{[2
]}

Kinsey, Matt ^{[2
]}

Tallaksen, Kate ^{[2
]}

Wilson, Shelby ^{[2
]}

Shin, Lauren ^{[2
]}

Lemaitre, Joseph C. ^{[8
]}

Hulse, Juan Dent ^{[4
]}

Kaminsky, Joshua ^{[4
]}

Lee, Elizabeth C. ^{[4
]}

Hill, Alison L. ^{[4
]}

Davis, Jessica T. ^{[3
]}

Mu, Kunpeng ^{[3
]}

Xiong, Xinyue ^{[3
]}

Piontti, Ana Pastore Y. ^{[3
]}

Vespignani, Alessandro ^{[3
]}

Srivastava, Ajitesh ^{[9
]}

Porebski, Przemyslaw ^{[10
]}

Venkatramanan, Srini ^{[10
]}

Adiga, Aniruddha ^{[10
]}

Lewis, Bryan ^{[10
]}

Klahn, Brian ^{[10
]}

Outten, Joseph ^{[10
]}

Hurt, Benjamin ^{[10
]}

Chen, Jiangzhuo ^{[10
]}

Mortveit, Henning ^{[10
]}

Wilson, Amanda ^{[10
]}

Marathe, Madhav ^{[10
]}

Hoops, Stefan ^{[10
]}

Bhattacharya, Parantapa ^{[10
]}

Machi, Dustin ^{[10
]}

Chen, Shi ^{[11
]}

Paul, Rajib ^{[11
]}

Janies, Daniel ^{[11
]}

Thill, Jean-Claude ^{[11
]}

Galanti, Marta ^{[12
]}

Yamana, Teresa ^{[12
]}

Pei, Sen ^{[12
]}

Shaman, Jeffrey ^{[12
]}

机构：

[1] Penn State Univ, University Pk, PA 16802 USA

[2] Johns Hopkins Univ, Appl Phys Labs, Laurel, MD USA

[3] Northeastern Univ, Boston, MA 02115 USA

[4] Johns Hopkins Univ, Baltimore, MD USA

[5] Harvard Univ, Cambridge, MA 02138 USA

[6] Univ Massachusetts, Amherst, MA 01003 USA

[7] Univ Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, PA USA

[8] Ecole Polytech Fed Lausanne, Lausanne, Switzerland

[9] Univ Southern Calif, Los Angeles, CA 90007 USA

[10] Univ Virginia, Charlottesville, VA USA

[11] Univ N Carolina, Charlotte, NC USA

[12] Columbia Univ, New York, NY USA

[13] Univ Notre Dame, Notre Dame, IN 46556 USA

[14] Ctr Dis Control & Prevent, CDC COVID 19 Response Team, Atlanta, GA USA

[15] NIH, Fogarty Int Ctr, Bethesda, MD 20892 USA

[16] Univ N Carolina, Chapel Hill, NC 27515 USA

来源：

LANCET REGIONAL HEALTH-AMERICAS | 2023年 / 17卷

基金：

美国国家科学基金会; 瑞士国家科学基金会;

关键词：

SARS-CoV-2; COVID-19; Vaccination; Variant emergence; Scenario projection; Modeling; HOSPITALIZATIONS;

D O I：

10.1016/j.lana.2022.100398

中图分类号：

R19 [保健组织与事业（卫生事业管理）];

学科分类号：

摘要：

Background The COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub convened nine modeling teams to project the impact of expanding SARS-CoV-2 vaccination to children aged 5-11 years on COVID-19 burden and resilience against variant strains. Methods Teams contributed state- and national-level weekly projections of cases, hospitalizations, and deaths in the United States from September 12, 2021 to March 12, 2022. Four scenarios covered all combinations of 1) vaccination (or not) of children aged 5-11 years (starting November 1, 2021), and 2) emergence (or not) of a variant more transmissible than the Delta variant (emerging November 15, 2021). Individual team projections were linearly pooled. The effect of childhood vaccination on overall and age-specific outcomes was estimated using meta-analyses. Findings Assuming that a new variant would not emerge, all-age COVID-19 outcomes were projected to decrease nationally through mid-March 2022. In this setting, vaccination of children 5-11 years old was associated with reductions in projections for all-age cumulative cases (7.2%, mean incidence ratio [IR] 0.928, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.880-0.977), hospitalizations (8.7%, mean IR 0.913, 95% CI 0.834-0.992), and deaths (9.2%, mean IR 0.908, 95% CI 0.797-1.020) compared with scenarios without childhood vaccination. Vaccine benefits increased for scenarios including a hypothesized more transmissible variant, assuming similar vaccine effectiveness. Projected relative reductions in cumulative outcomes were larger for children than for the entire population. State-level variation was observed. Interpretation Given the scenario assumptions (defined before the emergence of Omicron), expanding vaccination to children 5-11 years old would provide measurable direct benefits, as well as indirect benefits to the all-age U.S. population, including resilience to more transmissible variants.

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