Geopolitical Risk and Investment

被引：56

作者：

Wang, Xinjie ^{[1
]}

Wu, Yangru ^{[2
]}

Xu, Weike ^{[3
]}

机构：

[1] Southern Univ Sci & Technol, Dept Finance, Shenzhen, Guangdong, Peoples R China

[2] Rutgers State Univ, Rutgers Business Sch, Dept Finance & Econ, New Brunswick, NJ USA

[3] Clemson Univ, Wilbur O & Ann Powers Coll Business, Dept Finance, Clemson, SC USA

来源：

JOURNAL OF MONEY CREDIT AND BANKING | 2024年 / 56卷 / 08期

关键词：

geopolitical risk; uncertainty; corporate investment; irreversibility; convexity; EXCHANGE-RATE UNCERTAINTY; POLITICAL UNCERTAINTY; POLICY UNCERTAINTY; PRICE; IMPACT; IRREVERSIBILITY; VARIABLES; DEMAND; MODEL;

D O I：

10.1111/jmcb.13110

中图分类号：

F8 [财政、金融];

学科分类号：

0202 ;

摘要：

Using a news-based index of geopolitical risk (GPR), we document a strong negative relationship between firm-level corporate investment and GPR. When the GPR index doubles, next-quarter investment declines by 14% of its sample mean. The effect is more pronounced for firms with more irreversible investment or higher market power, confirming the real options theory. However, the effect is less significant for firms with a stronger ability to substitute labor for capital, a higher labor-to-capital ratio, or a higher labor share, supporting the convex return theory. Overall, our results suggest that the real options channel dominates the Oi-Hartman-Abel effect.

引用

页码：2023 / 2059

页数：37

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