Epidemiology and predictors of relapse in giant cell arteritis: A systematic review and meta-analysis

Objectives: The aim of this study was to estimate the timing of relapse, the prevalence of multiple relapses and the predictors of relapse in patients with giant cell arteritis (GCA).Methods: PubMed, Embase and Cochrane databases were searched from inception till November, 30 2021. Outcome measures include cumulative relapse rate (CRR) of first relapse at year 1, 2, and 5 after treatment initiation, CRR of second and third relapse and predictors of relapse. Results: Thirty studies (2595 patients) were included for timing of relapse, 16 studies (1947 patients) for prevalence of multiple relapses and 40 studies (4213 patients) for predictors of relapse. One-year, 2-year and 5-year CRRs were 32% [95% confidence interval (CI) 22-43%], 44% [95% CI 31-59%], and 47% [95% CI 27-67%], respectively. The duration of scheduled glucocorticoid therapy was negatively associated with the 1-year CRR (P = 0.03). CRR of second and third relapse were 30% [95% CI 21-40] and 17% [95% CI 8-33%], respectively. Female sex (OR 1.43) and large vessel involvement (OR 2.04) were predictors of relapse.Conclusion: Relapse occurred in almost half of GCA patients mainly during the first two years after diagnosis. One in three patients had multiple relapses. The optimal glucocorticoid tapering schedule, which seeks a balance between the lowest relapse risk and the shortest glucocorticoid duration, needs to be determined in future studies. Longer scheduled glucocorticoid therapy or early introduction of glucocorticoid-sparing agents may be warranted in female patients and patients with large vessel involve-ment.(c) 2022 Societe franc , aise de rhumatologie. Published by Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.