Risk stratification and beneficiary selection among elderly nasopharyngeal carcinoma patients from concurrent chemoradiotherapy combined with induction chemotherapy

Objective: This study aims to evaluate the risk stratification among elderly Nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) patients (>= 60 years old) and select the beneficiaries from concurrent chemotherapy (CCRT) combined with induction chemotherapy (IC). Materials and Methods: A total of 909 elderly non-metastatic NPC patients treated with cisplatin- based CCRT or IC + CCRT between January 2007 and December 2016 were included. Prognostic nomograms were generated according to clinical characteristics and serum biomarkers. The survival outcomes of patients treated with CCRT versus IC + CCRT were compared in three well-matched risk groups (high, medium, and low risk) after PSM analysis. Benefit of IC in people older or younger than 70 years and effect of different IC regimens and cycles on prognosis were analyzed. Results: Nomograms of overall survival (OS) (C-index: 0.64, 95% CI, 0.61- 0.89) and disease special survival (DSS) (C-index: 0.65, 95% CI, 0.62- 0.71) showed good prognostic accuracy. The nomogram for DSS included variables of age, gender, ACE, EBV DNA, N stage, and T stage. OS included variables of age, smoking history, ACE, ALB, EBV DNA, N stage, and T stage. The corresponding 5 year OS rates of high, medium and low risk groups were 87.4%, 82.2%, and 60.9%, respectively (p < 0.001), while the 5 year DSS rates were 92.2%, 84.3%, and 69.0%, respectively (p < 0.001). In the high risk group, IC + CCRT led to significantly higher 5 year OS and DSS rate compared with CCRT (5 year OS rate, 73.5% versus 51.8%, p = 0.006; 5 year DSS rate, 81.4% versus 61.3%, p = 0.002). While in the medium and low risk groups, OS and DSS were not significantly different (OS: p = 0.259, 0.186; DSS: p = 0.29, 0.094). Subgroup analysis showed in the high risk group, only people younger than 70 years old could benefit from IC. TPF and IC cycles of three could lead to the best survival results. Conclusion: Compared with CCRT, OS, and DSS among high risk elderly patients were significantly improved by the addition of IC in patients younger than 70 years old. TPF and three IC cycles were recommended.