Examining the Lancet Commission risk factors for dementia using Mendelian randomisation

Background Dementia incidence is increasing across the globe and currently there are no disease-modifying pharmaceutical treatments. The Lancet Commission on dementia identified 12 modifiable risk factors which explain 40% of dementia incidence. However, whether these associations are causal in nature is unclear. Objective To examine the modifiable risk factors for dementia as identified in the Lancet Commission review using Mendelian randomisation (MR) to establish if, based on genetic evidence, these associations with different dementia subtypes are causal in nature. Methods Publicly available genome-wide association study data were used for 10 risk factors and Alzheimer's disease (AD), frontotemporal dementia and dementia with Lewy bodies. Two-sample MR using the inverse varianceweighted method was conducted to test for causal relationships. Weighted median MR and MR-Egger were used to test for pleiotropic effects. Results Genetic proxied risk for higher levels of smoking (OR: 0.80 (95% CI: 0.69; 0.92), p=0.002), obesity (OR: 0.87 (95% CI: 0.82; 0.92), p<0.001) and blood pressure (OR: 0.90 (95% CI: 0.82; 0.99), p=0.035) appeared to be protective against the risk of AD. Post hoc analyses indicated these associations had pleiotropic effects with the risk of coronary artery disease. Genetic proxied risk of educational attainment was found to be inconsistently associated with the risk of AD. Conclusions and implications Post hoc analysis indicated that the apparent protective effects of smoking, obesity and blood pressure were a result of survivor bias. The findings from this study did not support those presented by the Lancet Commission. Evidence from causal inference studies should be considered alongside evidence from epidemiological studies and incorporated into reviews of the literature.