Vascular compactness of unruptured brain arteriovenous malformation predicts risk of hemorrhage after stereotactic radiosurgery

The aim of the study was to investigate whether morphology (i.e. compact/diffuse) of brain arteriovenous malformations (bAVMs) correlates with the incidence of hemorrhagic events in patients receiving Stereotactic Radiosurgery (SRS) for unruptured bAVMs. This retrospective study included 262 adult patients with unruptured bAVMs who underwent upfront SRS. Hemorrhagic events were defined as evidence of blood on CT or MRI. The morphology of bAVMs was evaluated using automated segmentation which calculated the proportion of vessel, brain tissue, and cerebrospinal fluid in bAVMs on T2-weighted MRI. Compactness index, defined as the ratio of vessel to brain tissue, categorized bAVMs into compact and diffuse types based on the optimal cutoff. Cox proportional hazard model was used to identify the independent factors for post-SRS hemorrhage. The median clinical follow-ups was 62.1 months. Post-SRS hemorrhage occurred in 13 (5.0%) patients and one of them had two bleeds, resulting in an annual bleeding rate of 0.8%. Multivariable analysis revealed bAVM morphology (compact versus diffuse), bAVM volume, and prescribed margin dose were significant predictors. The post-SRS hemorrhage rate increased with larger bAVM volume only among the diffuse nidi (1.7 versus 14.9 versus 30.6 hemorrhage per 1000 person-years in bAVM volume < 20 cm3 versus 20-40 cm(3) versus > 40 cm(3); p = 0.022). The significantly higher post-SRS hemorrhage rate of Spetzler-Martin grade IV-V compared with grade I-III bAVMs (20.0 versus 3.3 hemorrhages per 1000 person-years; p = 0.001) mainly originated from the diffuse bAVMs rather than the compact subgroup (30.9 versus 4.8 hemorrhages per 1000 person-years; p = 0.035). Compact and smaller bAVMs, with higher prescribed margin dose harbor lower risks of post-SRS hemorrhage. The post-SRS hemorrhage rate exceeded 2.2% annually within the diffuse and large (> 40 cm3) bAVMs and the diffuse Spetzler-Martin IV-V bAVMs. These findings may help guide patient selection of SRS for the unruptured bAVMs.